November 2020 Home Sales Report
Hot Housing Market Continues into November
Date: December 21, 2020
MADISON,
Wis. – Existing
home sales continued to surge in Wisconsin as mortgage rates hit a new record
low in November, setting Wisconsin on a record pace for sales while continued
low inventory levels pushed home prices even higher, according to the latest monthly
analysis of home sales by the Wisconsin REALTORS® Association. November
home sales increased 15.2% compared to their levels 12 months earlier, and the median
price increased 15.8% to $223,000. An
evaluation of the year-to-date figures reveals that sales are up 5.7% compared to the first 11 months of 2019, and the median
price has increased 11.4% to $220,000 compared
to that period last year.
“Record-low
mortgage rates have been the big driver of sales all year,” said WRA Chairman Steve
Beers. He pointed out that this is now the eighth straight month in which the
30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit a new record low with the November rate nearly a
full percent below the rate for November 2019 and almost 2% from two years earlier. “With lower rates, buyers can
either lower their monthly payment or they can step up to a larger home for a
given payment,” said Beers. For a buyer borrowing $200,000, their monthly
payment for principal and interest would be $101 lower at current rates
compared to mortgage rates this time last year, which is a savings of 11% on the principal and interest payment. Every region of the
state experienced double-digit increases in sales, with all but one region up
between 11% and 14.6%. The exception is the Southeast region, which increased
21.9% between November 2019 and November 2020.
In that region, sales were particularly strong in the suburban counties
surrounding Milwaukee as well as Racine and Kenosha counties. Collectively, November
closed sales in those counties grew at 26.3%
over the last 12 months.
“Low
inventories continue to be a challenge in this market,” said WRA President & CEO Michael Theo. A balanced
market where there is neither a buyer’s nor seller’s advantage is considered to
be six months of supply. “We’re selling homes faster than they’re coming on the
market, which is leading to our persistent housing shortages,” said Theo. There
is just 2.8 months of supply statewide, indicating a very strong seller’s
market. New listings in November were on par with November 2019, but given the
robust pace of sales this year, total listings are actually down 30.9% over the
last 12 months. “Strong demand and tight supply continue to drive prices up,
and our median price has remained above the $200,000 threshold since March,
which is the first time we’ve seen that in Wisconsin,” he said. Home prices
follow a regular seasonal pattern, rising in the summer and receding in the
fall and winter months. While that pattern has continued, strong demand has
kept the median price above $200,000 for each of the last three months. Year to
date, the median price increased 11.4%, so it is likely that prices above
$200,000 is the new normal. It is important to remember that this is well below
the national median price, which was $317,700 in October. “Wisconsin home
prices are definitely appreciating quickly, but our homes remain very affordable
by comparison,” said Theo.
“In the immediate aftermath of economic lockdowns to control the
spread of the virus, there were predictions of a V-shaped economic recovery,
and the 33.1% bounce during the third quarter of real (inflation-adjusted) GDP
would seem to support that claim, but the fourth quarter is shaping up to have
more normal growth,” said David Clark, Marquette University economist and
consultant to the WRA. The New York Federal Reserve Bank
indicates that its real-time prediction of real GDP growth for the fourth
quarter is currently around 2.5%. “The U.S. total
nonfarm employment fell by more than 22 million jobs between February and April
of this year, and by November, we had cut that loss to about 10 million jobs,
which is good progress,” said Clark. He indicates that once the vaccine has
been widely distributed, we can expect more robust economic growth.
“It
remains to be seen whether this is a V-shaped economic recovery, but the home
sales are on record pace, and historic low mortgage rates make this an
excellent time to buy a home,” said Theo. He pointed out that homes are moving
quickly, and working with a REALTOR® who is experienced is still the
key to success. “REALTORS® know how to effectively navigate a hot
housing market to get families in the home that best fits their needs,” he
said.